The 2025 holiday shopping season is now behind us—and while sales hit record levels again, the story behind those numbers looks very different from what advertisers have come to expect. Black Friday and Cyber Monday are still tentpole events, but neither functioned as the dramatic, two-day spike they once were.
Instead, 2025 solidified what 2024 began: a transformation from a “deal weekend” to an extended, AI-influenced holiday shopping season.
Across hundreds of Amazon accounts managed by Ad Advance, combined with broader retail data and insights from our VP of Operations, Erik Swenson, the performance patterns are unmistakable. Shoppers are:
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browsing earlier,
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comparing more,
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relying on AI guidance, and
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distributing purchases across more days.
Here is what the data—and the shopper behavior behind it—tell us about Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025, including a detailed comparison to 2024.
The Continued Evolution of Holiday Timing: From Turkey 12 to “Holiday All Season”
In 2024, the story was the expansion of deal cycles:
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Amazon extended its Turkey 5 → Turkey 11 → Turkey 12,
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Walmart launched three weeks of Black Friday promotions,
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Target and others offered Black Friday-like pricing across November and December.
2025 continued—and accelerated—that trend.
Holiday messaging began earlier, pricing transparency increased, and continuous promotions conditioned shoppers to browse and compare well before Thanksgiving weekend. The early-season demand curve has now stretched so far forward that the traditional “start” of holiday shopping effectively no longer exists.
2025 vs. 2024 at a Glance: The Macro Summary
What changed in 2025:
Compared to 2024’s trend of fewer peaks and more consistent behavior, 2025 amplified this flattening effect:
2024 Highlights:
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Black Friday online sales hit $10.8B; Cyber Monday reached $13.3B (Adobe Analytics).
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Traffic spread more evenly across Turkey 12.
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Cyber Monday delivered the highest Conversion Rate (CVR) of the period.
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Shoppers were browsing earlier but still reacting strongly to key event days.
2025 Highlights:
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Black Friday and Cyber Monday both set new sales records—but shopper behavior was less spiky.
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Traffic surged dramatically, but conversion rates remained stable instead of climbing.
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Black Friday was the strongest overall day, but with less sharp distinction from the surrounding days.
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AI introduced new dynamics: price tracking, comparison prompts, and real-time deal analysis.
The comparison suggests a multiyear trend toward broad, distributed holiday demand rather than isolated event-driven surges.
2025 Amazon Sponsored Ads Results (U.S.)
To understand how the season performed, we compared key days to the 2-week November average across our accounts. Here’s the breakdown:
First Week of Deals (Early November)
Shoppers were already active:
| Metric | % Change vs. Nov Average |
|---|---|
| Impressions | +23.9% |
| Clicks | +16.2% |
| Orders | +16.2% |
| Spend | +23.0% |
| Sales | +19.2% |
| CVR | 17.5% (Slight increase) |
Interpretation:
Mirroring 2024’s early browsing behavior, but even stronger. Shoppers were engaged but not yet urgent—consistent with the “holiday all season” mentality.
Black Friday 2025
A high-traffic day with a softer-than-historic spike in conversions.
| Metric | % Change vs. Nov Average |
|---|---|
| Impressions | +67.6% |
| Clicks | +57.0% |
| Orders | +80.1% |
| Sales | +105.8% |
| CVR | 19.5% (highest) |
How It Compares to 2024
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In 2024, Black Friday produced a strong conversion spike, but not the highest peak.
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In 2025, CVR hit the highest peak, beating out Cyber Monday.
Further breakdown of the weekend (Saturday/Sunday) continued the trend: elevated traffic, soft conversion lift, and more browsing behavior—consistent with 2024’s weekend behavior patterns.
Cyber Monday 2025
Not as strong as year’s past, with behavior that looks flatter than historical norms.
| Metric | % Change vs. Nov Average |
|---|---|
| Impressions | +76.6 |
| Clicks | +54.7% |
| Orders | +71.1% |
| Sales | +81.3% |
| CVR | 18.8% |
How It Compares to 2024
In 2024, Cyber Monday delivered the highest CVR of Turkey 12.
In 2025, CVR bumped back up but not above Black Friday rates.
This reinforces the evolving dynamic: conversion rate spikes are diminishing as shoppers feel less pressured to act immediately.
What’s Driving These Behavior Shifts
1. Continuous Deals Reduce Day-Specific Urgency
2024 proved that extended deal cycles flatten demand.
2025 simply extended that trend.
With deals present for weeks, shoppers no longer feel the need to purchase specifically on Black Friday or Cyber Monday.
2. Price Sensitivity Remains High
Despite easing inflation, consumers stayed deliberate in how they evaluated “value.”
This aligns with 2024 patterns showing:
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Higher browsing activity
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Fewer impulse conversions
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Increased list-building before decisive purchase events
3. AI: The New Holiday Shopping Influencer
This is the biggest difference between 2024 and 2025.
Amazon’s Rufus price tracking changed urgency dynamics.
Rufus can tell shoppers:
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whether a deal is the lowest price in 30+ days,
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whether a better price is likely later,
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whether alternative products offer better value.
Shoppers are now trained to rely on AI for purchase timing.
AI comparison shopping grew dramatically.
AI-assisted retail queries increased 700%+ YoY.
This enabled:
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near-instant cross-marketplace comparisons,
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reduced retailer lock-in,
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more informed browsing behavior.
Outcome:
Traffic surged—but CVR didn’t spike like past years. Consumers were smarter, more informed, and less rushed.
What Top-Performing Brands Did (And Didn’t) Do
Across both years, strong performers shared consistent behaviors:
2025 Winners:
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Ramped budgets earlier in November (not just on event days)
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Updated creatives for holiday messaging
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Tightened ASIN strategy to highlight proven converters
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Used DSP to grow audiences before the deal period
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Coordinated off-Amazon promotions to compound demand
2024 vs. 2025 Comparison
| Behavior | 2024 Winners | 2025 Winners |
|---|---|---|
| Early Budget Ramp | Important | Critical |
| Creative Refresh | Strong impact | Essential as browsing increased |
| CVR Spikes | Present | Present, but Flattened |
| Deal-Day Concentration | Moderate | Weakening |
| AI Influence | Emerging | Dominant |
How This Fits Into the 5-Year Trend Line
Our 2024 article outlined multi-year behavior patterns. 2025 continues—and strengthens—the same principles:
Weekend Behavior:
Still soft, both years. Browsing > buying.
December Dynamics:
Strong since our 2019 analysis years. December boosts conversions as shoppers finalize lists.
Shipping Deadline Decline:
Still consistent: conversion drops sharply after Dec 19–21.
Post-Christmas Rebound:
Still present, especially for accessory and “New Year” categories.
2019 vs. Today:
The days of sharp post-Cyber Monday conversion spikes remain gone. Holiday behavior now forms a plateau, not a peak.
What Advertisers Should Expect Moving Into 2026
1. Even earlier shopping behavior
Expect measurable lifts in late October.
2. Less reliance on event-day spikes
Brands must plan for multi-week optimization—not two-day performance.
3. AI-driven deal analysis will accelerate
Pricing transparency will continue reducing urgency.
4. First-party audience growth becomes a competitive advantage
DSP and remarketing pools are becoming long-term assets.
5. Clear value messaging matters more than ever
When AI compares everything for shoppers, your product differentiation must be unmistakable.
Final Takeaway
Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025 delivered strong results—but through volume, not volatility. The season’s strength came from broader traffic, longer browsing cycles, stable conversion rates, and the rapidly growing influence of AI on shopper decision-making.
If 2024 marked the shift toward an extended holiday season, 2025 confirms that this is the new normal.
Advertisers who plan early, build strong audiences, maintain sharp creative, and adapt to AI-driven behavior will be the ones who win the holiday seasons ahead.